## Announcements

New! Grades have been submitted to the computer system. It says they will be available within 24 hours. That's sometime on Thursday, May 20, 2010.

New! Final exams have been placed in the statistics department office Ford Hall 313. The office is open 8:00–4:30 Monday through Friday. Ask one of the office staff for your exam.

New! Grade distribution for final exam has been posted.

New! Solutions for the final exam have been revised. A comment has been added about problem 2 and an alternative solution has been added for problem 6. Requires the usual username and passphrase.

Homework 12 and earlier homeworks and midterms can be picked up in Geyer's office, Ford 356, during Geyer's office hours Monday, May 10, 2:30-3:20 and Tuesday, May 11, 2:30-3:20 and 3:35-4:25.

Homework 12 solutions posted under the Homework Solutions link in the navigation to the left. The usual user name and password required.

Office hours for Geyer during finals week will be the usual office hour on Monday, May 10, 2:30-3:20 and the office ours on Wednesday (which would be after the final exam) will be moved to Tuesday, May 11, 2:30-3:20 and 3:35-4:25. There will be no offical office hours after that (until spring semester 2011), but I will be around most of the summer and fall semesters if anyone needs to talk to me about anything.

Errors found in class fixed
on slide 4, deck 7
(bold theta

with no decoration changed to bold theta

with hat
in two places in the text above the displayed equation).

The TA asked that a sentence be added to the end of the solution to
homework problem 11-5. It clarifies
how the variance of the empirical distribution `v _{n}`
and the sample variance

`s`

_{n}^{2}relate to this problem.

Errors found in class fixed
on slide 69, deck 6
(theta twiddle

changed to theta hat

, neither of which can
be made in HTML, in the second displayed equation)
and on slide 83, deck 6
(`r` changed to `c` in upper limit of second summation).

Homework 11 solutions posted under the Homework Solutions link in the navigation to the left. The usual user name and password required.

A student asked about the R syntax for doing homework problems 12-2 and 12-3.
The information is on the
on-line
help page for family

. If

out <- glm(y ~ x, family = binomial)

does the logistic regression you want, then

out <- glm(y ~ x, family = binomial(link = "probit"))

does the corresponding probit regression. And similarly for cauchit

link. This was covered in class at the end of the lecture for April 28,
but is not on the slides or the computer examples.

Errors found in class fixed
on slide 42, deck 6
(logit changed to log in second displayed equation)
and on slide 56, deck 6
(η changed to η_{i} in third displayed equation).

Homework assignment 12 posted (under the Homework Assignments link in the navigation). Due Wednesday, May 5, 2010.

Homework 9 and 10 solutions posted under the Homework Solutions link in the navigation to the left. The usual user name and password required.

Error on homework 11, problem 11-11(a) hint deleted.
Of course `t` critical values should be used instead of `z`
critical values.

Error found in class fixed
on slide 68, deck 5
(`d _{c i}`
changed to
(

`d`everywhere and first displayed equation rearranged).

_{i c}The three review problems on homework 11 will be all the review problems especially for the final exam. By looking at last years exam (follow the Stat 5102 (Spring 2009) link in the navigation and then Exams link from there) one can see that the other 5 problems (for 8 problems all together) reviewed old material.

Homework assignment 11 posted (under the Homework Assignments link in the navigation). Due Wednesday, April 28, 2010.

Error found in class fixed
on slide 66, deck 5.
**H**_{2} (**I** − **H**_{2})
changed to
**H**_{2} (**I** − **H**_{1})
in first displayed equation.

The link to the recording of class Wednesday April 14 was not done until morning Friday April 16, but is there now.

Solutions for the second midterm have been posted. Requires the usual username and passphrase.

Grade distribution for second midterm has been posted.

Homework assignment 10 posted (under the Homework Assignments link in the navigation). Due Wednesday, April 21, 2010.

Errors found by a student fixed
on slide 32, deck 4
(− λ _{n}
changed to − λ `n`
_{n}
in first displayed equation).

Errors found in class fixed
on slide 12, deck 5
(`R ^{d}` changed to

`R`in first line).

^{n}There will be only one office hour 2:30–3:20 for Geyer on Wednesday, April 7.

Errors found in class fixed on slide 8, deck 5 (minus sign changed to plus in three places).

Homework 8 solutions posted under the Homework Solutions link in the navigation to the left. The usual user name and password required.

Errors found in class fixed.
On slide 95, deck 4
hypotheses modified so null

hypothesis is weak inequality
(not really necessary since Bayesians treat hypotheses evenhandedly).
On slide 106, deck 4
added missing subscript to `p _{i}`.

The second midterm is not cumulative; it does not cover material covered by the first midterm (but the final exam is cumulative so don't forget that material). The second midterm will cover the material on the homeworks five through eight and the material on the slides starting at slide 147, deck 2 and going through slide 55, deck 4

The recording for Monday, March 29 finally posted (a day late); there was a problem of UMConnect giving it the same name as an earlier recording and UMConnect support takes a day to respond to questions. Now in the usual place on the Recordings page.

Homework assignment 9 posted (under the Homework Assignments link in the navigation). Due Wednesday, April 14, 2010 (after the second midterm).

Homework 7 solutions posted under the Homework Solutions link in the navigation to the left. The usual user name and password required.

As of 2:00 pm Thursday. March 25, it seems that the class can again view the recordings on the Recordings page. Let me know if you try it and it doesn't work.

As of 5:00 pm Wednesday, March 24 it seems that the UMConnect support staff claim that students can see the recordings was incorrect. As far as I know no student can see the recordings. UMConnect support has been informed; maybe they can fix it. We'll see.

The class on Wednesday, March 24 was successfully recorded and is linked to on the recordings page under the Recordings link in the navigation to the left. Also earlier recordings seem to be working again after being missing since the degrade of UMConnect. The UMConnect support staff claim that every student registered for the class can access the recordings. If you cannot, see the instructor.

Errors found in class fixed. On slide 54, deck 4 bottom displayed equation now

`g`(λ) ∝ 1 ⁄ λ

where before the left hand side was `g`(`p`).
On slide 57, deck 4
second paragraph now starts For fixed λ

where before
it said For fixed ν

.

Homework assignment 8 posted (under the Homework Assignments link in the navigation). Due Wednesday, March 31, 2010.

In a move of stunning user hostility
the University of Minnesota
Office of Information Technology has broken the UMConnect system
which we were using to record the lectures. They call it an upgrade

but the new system is totally incompatible with the old. Classes cannot
be streamed live or recorded until we get new software on the laptop used
for class. All the old recordings are gone for now, perhaps permanently.
This has nothing to do with the television connection between the classrooms
in Minneapolis and Rochester; that should continue as it was.

Homework 5 and 6 solutions posted under the Homework Solutions link in the navigation to the left. The usual user name and password required.

Error found in class
on slides 85, deck 3 fixed.
0 < `s` < 1 added to first displayed equation.

Solutions for the first midterm have been posted. Requires the usual username and passphrase.

Grade distribution for first midterm has been posted.

The recording for the lecture Monday, Mar 1 wasn't posted until Wednesday, Mar 3. It's there now.

Homework assignment 6 posted (under the Homework Assignments link in the navigation). Due Wednesday, March 10, 2010.

The classroom for the final exam will be Moos Tower 1-450 (the same classroom we have class in on Mondays and Wednesdays).

Error found in class
on slides 28, deck 3 fixed.
Was `x` → θ^{− n},
now θ → θ^{− n},

The first midterm will cover the material on the first four homeworks and the material on the slides through slide 146, deck 2. Hypothesis tests (starting at slide 147) will be on the second midterm.

Error found by several students on slide 44, deck 2 fixed. Was

`E`(

`S`)

_{n}^{2}= σ

^{2}+ var(

`S`)

_{n}`E`(

`S`)

_{n}^{2}= σ

^{2}− var(

`S`)

_{n}The recording for class Wednesday, February 17 failed, no sound. I have figured (too late) what was wrong, and we won't have a problem Friday. I didn't bother to post the video with no sound, because it didn't seem useful. I did post the material we covered on the recordings page.

Error found
on homework problem 3-2 (a) fixed.
Was variance σ

, now standard deviation σ

.

Errors found in class
on slides 53 and 55, deck 2 fixed.
Was f(μ), now f(μ)^{2}.

Error found in class
on slide 44, deck 2 fixed.
Was var(`S _{n}`)

^{2}, now var(

`S`).

_{n}A student pointed out the the on-line help for Rweb was broken (for example, the links on the Probability Distributions in R page). They are now fixed.

A student pointed out that there was a step missing in the proof on on slide 120, deck 1. The sentence

Because

Gis a monotone function,X_{(i)}=G(U_{(i)}).

has been added.

Error found in class on slide 118, deck 1 fixed. Was homework problem 8-11, now homework problem 7-16.

The first midterm will cover the first 4 homework assignments. More on exactly which slides are covered later.

Error found after class
on slide 59, deck 1 fixed.
First displayed equation was missing 1 ⁄ σ^{2}.

Error found in class
on slide 80, deck 1 fixed.
Was `X _{i}`, now

`X`.

_{i}^{k}
Error found in class
on slide 72, deck 1 fixed.
Was `O ^{T} O`, now

`O O`.

^{T}Some links for the review session.

A student found an error in the formula for the PDF of the F distribution in the brand name distributions handout (exponent was μ ⁄ 2 + 1 now μ ⁄ 2 − 1).

Error on slide 56, deck 1 fixed
(ν_{2} instead of ν in formula).

The review session about material from last semester needed to get started on the homework for this semester will be 2:30–3:20 Tuesday, January 26 in room 162 Amundson Hall (not room 158 as originally announced).

I think UMConnect permissions are set so anyone in the class can look at the recordings of lectures or the simultaneous streaming video and audio of them. See me if you have problems.

Many minor changes have been made to Deck 1 of the slides (posted 8:00 am, Friday, Jan 22). In particular, most of the references to the 5101 slides have been updated so that they match the slides from last semester. If you have already printed out the slides, make sure to correct your copy as we go along during lecture.

## Exam Dates

Exam | Date and Time |
---|---|

First Midterm | Wednesday, February 24 |

Second Midterm | Wednesday, April 7 |

Final Exam | 1:30pm–3:30pm Wednesday, May 12 |

The final exam time is set by the U.

The final exam will be in Moos Tower 1-450.