The webpage for this class has moooved to Moodle, and is available to enrolled students, moodle.umn.edu. Here is the syllabus for Fall 2009.

This is the webpage from Spring 2009, and will continue to be available for a while, but will probably not be updated.

In this course, you will learn how to interpret and evaluate numerical information given uncertainty. The topics are fascinating, and even math-phobes may find the course interesting.

Handouts and Lectures

• January 28: Popcorn and Lanarkshire Milk experiments, with references
• January 30: Stat Minutes
• February 9: Experiments and observational studies
• February 11: Histograms and such like
• February 13: Boxplots, SDs.
• February 18: Chapter 9, graphics
• March 23: Chapter 14, index numbers
• April 1: Should a nonprofit provide an annuity?
• April 13: Brown fat
• April 15: Summary of Chapters 19-21.
• sample final exam #1 and sample final exam #2, without solutions.
• Ethics, May 1, 2009.
• Ethics, May 4, 2009.
• Review graphs, May 6, 2009.
• sample final exam #1 and sample final exam #2, with solutions.

Assignments

Assignments should be turned in during class on Wednesdays. Please use only one side of the paper, be as neat as you can, and keep answers short. Solutions to problems marked with a "*" are included at the end of the book.

• Due January 28 Reading. Chapters 1 & 2; Problems. Chapter 1: 1, 2, 9*, 10, 13*, 18, 20; Chapter 2: 2, 3*, 10*, 11, 12*, 13
• Due Feb. 4 Reading. Chapters 3 & 4. Problems. Chapter 3: 2, 4*, 5*, 6*, 7*, 10*, 15, 20, 24; Chapter 4: 1*, 3, 5*, 6 (the conclusions of problems 5* and 6 need to be updated in light of the 2008 Freshman Survey), 7, 14, 17*, 27. Remember the first quiz is on Feb. 6.
• Due Feb. 11 Reading. Chapters 5 & 6. Problems. Chapter 5: 1, 2*, 3, 6, 8*, 10, 11*, 17, 19, 22*, 23. Chapter 6 has no problems.
• Due Feb. 18 Get a04.pdf. Class for Monday, Feb. 16 is canceled. Quiz #2 will be given on Feb. 20 covering Chapters 5 to 7 with a little from Chapters 1 to 4.
• Due Feb. 25: Chapter 8: 1,2*,3,4*,5,6,13,14,17,22. Chapter 9: 1*, 5*, 6, 7, 8*, 9
• Due March 4: Chapter 10: 1*, 2, 4, 6, 7*, 9, 10, 12*, 13. Chapter 11: 1, 2*, 4, 6, 8, 12bcf
• Due March 11: Chapter 12: 2, 3, 4*, 9a*bc, 10abc*, 15, 17abc. Chapter 13: 1, 2*, 3, 4, 5*, 6, 7, 8a*bc*d, 9ac, 10ac. Additional problems from Chapter 13 will be assigned next week.
• Due March 25: Chapter 13: 11, 12 (the value of chi-squared is 25.0), 13, 16. Chapter 14: 1, 2a*bc, 3*, 7*, 12*, 15, 18, 19.
• Due April 1: Chapter 16: 1, 2a*bc, 3, 9*, 10, 12, 14a*, 17a*b, 22, 24.
• Due April 7: Chapter 17: All starred problems plus 3, 12,13. Chapter 18: All starred problems plus 4, 7, 10, 19. Although homework remains a REQUIRED part of the course it will no longer be collected or graded.
• Due April 14 Chapter 19: 4ab*, 5, 13b*, 17*. Chapter 20, 2a*, 15a*b*, Chapter 21: 2, 3a*bc, 6a*b*
• Miniproject, due April 17 Your solution should be typed and submitted on paper, not electronically, in class on the 17th. Go to the webpage http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Chance_News_25.
  1. Read the article, "Napping is good for you". The analysis described used something called "Cox regression", which is a specialized method for studies in which the end point is death, and some, or many subjects live for the entire study period. It produces a summary called in the article a "coronary mortality ratio", which is equivalent to the relative risk we have computed previously, so the risk of death for those taking a siesta is estimated to be 0.66 times the risk for non-siesta. A 95% confidence interval is also given.

     Answer the first two questions at the end of the article on the webpage, and add a third question:

     If the sample size were increased from 12 to 25, what would you expect the resulting confidence interval to be, wider, narrower, or the same and why? What if the sample size had been only 8?

  2. Read the article, "Is the problem with the drug or with the data", on the same web page, and answer the 4 questions.
• Due April 21 Chapter 22: 3ab*c, 5a*bc*, 6, 7, 14, 17*. Chapter 23, 4a*b*, 7a*b*c*de, 15a*b*c
• Due May 1. Miniproject #1 on page 451.
• Due April 29. Chapter 24: 1a*b*c, 4a*bc, 12*, 15, 17*.
• Due May 6. Chapter 25: 3a*b*, 8*, 9*, 14*. Chapter 26: 4a*, 7*, 10*, 19*.

Articles

Some of the citations below are to University of Minnesota Library subscriptions, and you will need to be affiliated with the University to get the article.

• Cell phones use in cars Click on "Full text available via Highwire Press..."
• The Freshman Survey
• The patient teenagers paper.
• January 29: Kidney donors experiments, with references
• February 2: Univ. of Chicago Patient Survey.
• February 9, Legislative Auditor's Report on Q-Comp.
• February 9, The powerful placebo and the wizard of Oz.
• Video game violence. Click "Full test available via Sage...", then select February 2009, and then select the article "The Motivating Role of Violence in Video Games".
• US to compare medical treatments. As part of the stimulus package, the government will fund research to choose between different therapies for the same disease. Currently trials only compare new means to existing ones. On the same issue, see Why Doctors Hate Science, from Newsweek.
• The LAPD and racial profiling
• U researchers find way to block HIV, Star Tribune, March 5, 2009.
• Cold-Activated Brown Adipose Tissue in Healthy Men, New England Journal of Medicine, April 9, 2009.
• Identification and Importance of Brown Adipose Tissue in Adult Humans, New England Journal of Medicine, April 9, 2009.
• Video game study, April 20, 2009. Preprint of an article by Douglas Gentile that appears in Psychological Science.
• H1N1 spread predictions for May 2009.

 

S. Weisberg

sandy@stat.umn.edu