Student Seminar Series – April 15, 2008
University of Minnesota
School of Statistics
College
of Liberal Arts

 

Application of Linear Regressions on Temperature Forecasts Combinations



Youxing Qu


Tuesday, April 15, 2008
10:00 AM,
300 Ford Hall
Minneapolis, East Bank Campus



Abstract

Forecasts combinations have shown improved prediction accuracy in many situations than individual forecasts. In this work, we have used five linear regression methods (multiple least squares regression and ridge regression with or without variable selection, principle component regression) to conduct temperature forecasts combinations based on forecasts made by four websites. It is found that these methods can outperform most of the websites. In certain cases, the forecast combination methods have been found to be capable of outperforming any single website prediction or the average of these predictions.