Student Seminar Series - June 25, 2007
University of Minnesota
School of Statistics
College of Liberal Arts

Estimates of the Number of Iraqis Deaths Since Invasion


Guillermo Ruiz Palacios Horscheck


Monday, June 25, 2007
1:00 PM, 300 Ford Hall
Minneapolis, East Bank Campus

Refreshments at 12:30 PM
300 Ford Hall


Abstract


Since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in March 2003 several different efforts have been made to get an estimate of the total number of deaths of Iraqis. 
The different methodologies utilized to get the estimates produced very different results. For example, a study by Roberts, Lafta, Garfield, Khudhairi
and Burnham published in The Lancet estimated the excess in the number of Iraqis deaths due to the war during the period between the beginning of
the invasion and September 2004 (17.8 months) to be approximately 98,000 with a 95\% confidence interval of (8,000-194,000), while for the same
period, the Iraq Body Count (IBC) web site claimed to produce an estimate of the number of civilians reported killed to be between 17,004 and 19,840.
A more recent study by Burnham, Lafta, Doocy and Roberts, also published in The Lancet, estimated the excess in the number of deaths up to July 2006
to be around 650,000 with a 95\% confidence interval of (392,979-942,636), while for the same period the IBC published an estimate of the number of
civilians reported killed that was between 43,906 and 48,755. In this article, the methodologies utilized to get some of the estimates will be described,
along with their limitations, the way to interpret the results and if possible, how to compare them.