Student Seminar Series - June 15, 2007
University of Minnesota
School of Statistics
College of Liberal Arts

The Effect of Model Misspecification in Longitudinal Data


Meihua Yu


Friday, June 15, 2007
2:00 PM, 300 Ford Hall
Minneapolis, East Bank Campus

Refreshments at 1:30 PM
300 Ford Hall

Abstract


Researchers are interested in the rate of declining CD4+ cell count after stopping antiretroviral therapy.  For example, patients who 
entered the "Strategies for Management of Anti-retroviral Therapy"(SMART) study while on antiretroviral therapy, and who got
randomized to the DC arm, were stopping antiretrovirals, and we investigate statistical models that could be used to estimate their rate
of CD4+ decline within the first two months.


It is well-known that the CD4+ cell count at study entry (baseline) is associated with the rate of CD4+ decline, yet the "true" baseline
CD4+ is unknown, since it is measured with an error. In this paper we investigate the influence of model misspecification on the estimates
of the slope parameters; the misspecification occurs because we use the "observed" baseline CD4+ to fit data that were simulated with an
association between slope and "true" baseline CD4+.  We present simulation studies and compare the results from misspecified models
with true underlying models.  Then we apply our misspecified models to a subset of the SMART data.