Student Seminar Series - July 5, 2007
University of Minnesota
School of Statistics
College of Liberal Arts

FIS Points vs. BLUP's: Ranking World Cup Skiers


Alexia Zarling


Thursday, July 5, 2007
11:00 AM, 300 Ford Hall
Minneapolis, East Bank Campus

Refreshments at 10:30 AM
300 Ford Hall


Abstract


The point system for the International Ski Federation (FIS) ranks all skiers in the world that are members of FIS. This ranking system is based on a few complex factors, such as penalties, race points, etc. This study utilized shrinkage estimation techniques via Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP) methodology based on a linear mixed model to rank Alpine ski racers.  It then compared the rankings based on the BLUP’s with the FIS system. Mixed results were found. When the BLUP method was used for the end of the season rankings the results were similar to that of the rankings by FIS. However, when the BLUP method was used for the individual races the rankings did not come out the same as FIS.

 
A ranking system is important in ski racing to determine who the “best” racer is. It is different from track, or swimming or other sports where every race is the same distance. In ski racing every race is different. The gates (poles that set the skiers course), length of the course, hill terrain, etc. all vary depending on the venue, conditions, and course setter. Therefore a point system is used to determine who the “best” racer is overall. The points are used in races to determine the start order. The racers with the top points start at the beginning, often giving them an advantage since the course is in better condition.