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Monte Carlo Likelihood with Missing Data

The general method for MCL analysis with missing data for statistical models specified by families of unnormalized densities was laid out by Gelfand and Carlin (1993); see also the introduction of Geyer (1994).

Suppose now that x is missing data and y is observed data for a model specified by unnormalized joint densities tex2html_wrap_inline2491 for the complete data (x,y). Then the normalizing function for the complete data model is

displaymath4335

Also recall from Section 1.3.2 that tex2html_wrap_inline2491 is also an unnormalized conditional density of x given y and that the normalizing function for the conditional family is

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The likelihood is is the ratio of these normalizing functions

align1089

As usual, we write the log likelihood as a ratio against a fixed parameter point tex2html_wrap_inline3965

align1095

The same argument (1.29) that gave us ratios of normalizing constants in the non-missing-data case now says

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when applied to the complete data model and

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when applied to the conditional family. Hence

  equation1112

In order to approximate this by Monte Carlo we need samples from both the joint distribution of X and Y and the conditional distribution of X given Y, both for the parameter value tex2html_wrap_inline3965 . We can use MCMC for both. Both have the same unnormalized density tex2html_wrap_inline2495 . The only difference is that we leave y fixed at its observed value in one of the samplers. Hence suppose that tex2html_wrap_inline4365 , i = 1, 2, tex2html_wrap_inline2551 are samples from the joint distribution and tex2html_wrap_inline4371 , i = 1, 2, tex2html_wrap_inline2551 are samples from the conditional distribution and y is the observed value of Y. Then

  equation1119

is a Monte Carlo approximation to the exact log likelihood (1.45).



Charles Geyer
Fri Jul 5 15:26:21 CDT 1996