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Conditional Families

 

Suppose now that we are given a family of normalized probability densities tex2html_wrap_inline2443 but are interested in the conditional family tex2html_wrap_inline2445 .

trivlist288

What this means is the following. Say tex2html_wrap_inline2377 is a density with respect to tex2html_wrap_inline2449 . For fixed y consider the function

  equation120

This is an unnormalized density with respect to tex2html_wrap_inline2349 with normalizing constant

displaymath2455

where tex2html_wrap_inline2457 is the marginal density with respect to tex2html_wrap_inline2459 of the random variable Y. The normalized density is then

displaymath2463

Conditional families arise in conditional likelihood inference and in Bayesian inference. In conditional likelihood inference, although the complete data (x, y) are observed, rather than maximizing the joint likelihood tex2html_wrap_inline2443 to estimate tex2html_wrap_inline2411 , one maximizes the conditional likelihood tex2html_wrap_inline2445 . Thus is usually done because because y is exactly or approximately ancillary. In Bayesian inference the likelihood times the prior is a known normalized joint density for parameter and data, but the object of inference is the conditional distribution of the parameter given the data.



Charles Geyer
Fri Jul 5 15:26:21 CDT 1996