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Next: Reverse Logistic Regression Up: Likelihood Inference for Spatial Previous: Monte Carlo Newton-Raphson

Stochastic Approximation

 

The method of stochastic approximation, used to obtain Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimates by Younes (1988) and Moyeed and Baddeley (1991) is not useful for obtaining estimates of even moderate precision, nor is there a good method of estimating the accuracy of its estimates. It may be used to get a starting point for MCL methods.

Here we use a very simplified version of stochastic approximation. The idea is to run a Markov chain with nonstationary transition probabilities, adjusting the parameter tex2html_wrap_inline2411 in each iteration moving it toward the MLE. We thus obtain a sequence tex2html_wrap_inline3979 of point patterns and parameter values. If the current position is tex2html_wrap_inline3981 and x is the observed point pattern, then a very crude estimate of the score is tex2html_wrap_inline3985 . Moving tex2html_wrap_inline2411 in that direction will, on average, move it toward the MLE. Hence for some tex2html_wrap_inline3749 , we update tex2html_wrap_inline2411 using

displaymath3993

In classical stochastic approximation, tex2html_wrap_inline2321 is also a function of n, decreasing with time to that tex2html_wrap_inline3999 converges to the MLE. The usual practice is to use

displaymath4001

in iteration k, where tex2html_wrap_inline4005 and tex2html_wrap_inline4007 are constants. This form is implemented in the computer code described in Section 1.13, but since there are no guidelines for choosing tex2html_wrap_inline4009 or tex2html_wrap_inline4011 , we prefer a more `hands-on' approach in which tex2html_wrap_inline4013 and tex2html_wrap_inline4015 is chosen by looking at plots.

There is no known way to choose tex2html_wrap_inline2321 except by experiment. If tex2html_wrap_inline2321 is too large, the sampler may react too rapidly to the initial position, running away from the MLE. If tex2html_wrap_inline2321 is too small, the sampler makes no appreciable progress. The sampler should remain in approximate equilibrium, so that tex2html_wrap_inline3981 is an approximate realization from tex2html_wrap_inline3999 , and tex2html_wrap_inline2321 should be set small enough so that the sampler stays in approximate equilibrium. One must not change tex2html_wrap_inline2411 so fast that the sampler can't change x rapidly enough to stay in approximate equilibrium.


next up previous
Next: Reverse Logistic Regression Up: Likelihood Inference for Spatial Previous: Monte Carlo Newton-Raphson

Charles Geyer
Fri Jul 5 15:26:21 CDT 1996