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Monte Carlo Likelihood

With the normalized densities of a model given by (1.2), the log likelihood for an observation x is

displaymath3923

It turns out to be more convenient to use the log likelihood ratio against a fixed point tex2html_wrap_inline3925

  equation713

The first term, involving the unnormalized densities, is known in closed form, the second, involving the normalizing function, is not. But, if tex2html_wrap_inline3927 whenever tex2html_wrap_inline3929 , then

  equation720

This permits calculation of the log likelihood by MCMC. Let tex2html_wrap_inline3931 , tex2html_wrap_inline3933 , tex2html_wrap_inline2551 be simulations from tex2html_wrap_inline3937 . Then

  equation737

is approximated by

  equation744

Maximizing (1.31) gives a Monte Carlo approximation tex2html_wrap_inline3939 to the MLE tex2html_wrap_inline3941 , which maximizes (1.30).

The gradient of (1.31) is

  equation759

which can be recognized as a case of importance sampling. Define

  equation770

and for any function g

  equation776

Then (1.34) is the Monte Carlo approximation of tex2html_wrap_inline3945 given by the importance sampling formula using normalized importance weights (1.33). Using this notation, we get

  equation785

Similarly,

  multline790

where for a vector-valued function g

displaymath3949

This all simplifies considerably in the exponential family case where we have

align803

and normalized importance weights are

displaymath3951

Giving estimates of the score

  equation810

and Fisher information

  equation815

just what one expects, since the exact score and Fisher information are obtained by replacing Monte Carlo expectations by exact expectations.



Charles Geyer
Fri Jul 5 15:26:21 CDT 1996