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Next: Comment on Asymptotics Up: Markov Chain Convergence Previous: Geometric Ergodicity

Central Limit Theorem

Geometric ergodicity often implies a central limit theorem (CLT). Let g be any tex2html_wrap_inline2523 -integrable function,

displaymath3735

where tex2html_wrap_inline2523 is the stationary distribution of a Harris recurrent chain, and let

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be the sample mean of a run of length n starting at tex2html_wrap_inline3743 , which may be chosen arbitrarily. Then the strong law of large numbers (Meyn and Tweedie, 1993, Theorem 17.1.7) implies tex2html_wrap_inline3745 with probability one.

If the function g satisfies a Lyapunov condition

  equation601

for some tex2html_wrap_inline3749 then the CLT also holds

  equation605

where

  equation610

where tex2html_wrap_inline3751 (Chan and Geyer, 1994, Theorem 2). A different CLT is given by Meyn and Tweedie (1993, Theorem 17.5.4). They replace the Lyapunov condition (1.24) by a condition that relates g to the function V in the geometric drift condition. If tex2html_wrap_inline3757 , then the CLT (1.25) holds with tex2html_wrap_inline3759 given by (1.26).

When the chain is Harris recurrent, the CLT and the SLLN hold for every starting position, indeed every starting distribution, if they hold for one starting position (Meyn and Tweedie, 1993, Theorem 17.1.6). The idea that one must run the chain until it `reaches equilibrium' before starting to sample, something that is, strictly speaking, impossible, is not required by the asymptotics.



Charles Geyer
Fri Jul 5 15:26:21 CDT 1996