Student Seminar Series - July 21, 2006
University of Minnesota
School of Statistics
College of Liberal Arts

Simulating Quantities of Interest for Five Card Draw Jackpot Poker


Scott Jackson


Friday, July 21, 2006
1:00 PM, 170 Ford Hall
Minneapolis, East Bank Campus

Refreshments at 12:30 PM
300 Ford Hall


Abstract


In a form of five card draw poker known as Jackpot, the jackpot (a prize for losing at showdown even though one has a very strong hand) is opened when any player has a pair of Jacks or better. Redish and Ross (1967) simulated the probability of the jackpot being opened for a game of 2-5 players, and using R we run a check on their results. Then using R we also run simulations to estimate several probabilities of interest to a player in the game, which can be checked for accuracy by comparing to known exact probabilites of being dealt various types of hands. Also discussed is how these results can be adjusted for real life, where the play of human opponents is not usually formulaic enough to be precisely predicted by a computer program.