Spring Seminar Series  April 19, 2007
University of Minnesota
School of Statistics
College of Liberal Arts


Heping Zhang
Dept of Epidemiology and Public Health
Yale University School of Medicine

Thursday, April 19, 2007
3:30 PM, 115 Ford Hall
Minneapolis, East Bank Campus
Social at 3:00 PM, 300 Ford Hall


Abstract

Exposure to ambient pollutants at concentrations above defined standards is a risk factor for respiratory symptoms, especially in sensitive children. 
Many studies have been undertaken to monitor air quality and to assess its association with respiratory symptoms. We propose a joint mixed effects
regression model of time series measures and recurrent events to analyze the air quality and respiratory symptom data from the Yale Mothers and Infants
Health Study. Three mothers' symptoms (runny nose, cough, and sore throat) and three infants' symptoms (runny nose, cough, and general sickness)
were investigated. To alleviate the computational complexity, a two-stage maximum likelihood based  estimation procedure is introduced to estimate the
parameters, and simulation studies are conducted to assess the validity of this estimation procedure. Our analysis reveals differences in the etiology of
respiratory symptoms between mothers and infants. Most notably, coarse particles of mass between 2.5 and 10  microns in diameter increased the risks
of mothers' runny nose and cough symptoms, but had no significant impact on any of the three infants' symptoms. The sulfate level was negatively associated
with the risk of infants' runny nose and cough symptoms, but had no significant effects on any of the three mothers' symptoms. High level of humidity is
negatively associated with the mothers' cough incidence, but had no significant association on any of the three infants' symptoms. Such differences reveal
not only the sensitivity of the mothers and infants to the air quality, but also call for further understanding of the differences. It is possible that actions taken
to overcome humidity by mothers may inadvertently affect the infants.
 
This is a joint work with Yuanqing Ye, Peter Diggle, and Jian Shi.