Buehler-Martin Lecturer Series - March 29, 2005
University of Minnesota
School of Statistics
College of Liberal Arts

Established by Mr. and Mrs. Thomas Martin
in Memory of
Robert J. Buehler, Professor of Statistics (1963-1988)

Measuring Diet: Is it Possible?

Raymond J. Carroll
Department of Statistics
Texas A & M University

Tuesday, March 29, 2005
3:30 PM, 231 Smith Hall
Minneapolis, East Bank Campus
Social at 3:00 PM, 300 Ford Hall

Abstract

Newspaper articles routinely report the results of epidemiological studies of the relationship between what we eat and disease outcomes such as heart disease and various forms of cancer. One of the best and most-quoted studies is the Nurses Health Study, which follows the health outcomes ~100,000 nurses and asks them questions about their dietary intakes. It is rare that prospective epidemiological studies of human populations find links between cancer and dietary intakes. Perhaps the most controversial of all is the question of the relationship between dietary fat intake and breast cancer. Countries with higher fat intakes tend to have higher rates of breast cancer, and yet no epidemiological study has shown such a link. The puzzle of course is to understand the discrepancy.

I am a statistician after all, and will focus on the question: how do we measure what we eat? Try this out: how many days per year do you eat pizza? I will review the accumulating evidence that suggests that finding links between disease and nutrient intakes will be the exception rather than the rule, simply because of the way diet is measured. Without any formulae, I will try to show how Karl Pearson addressed this question 110 years ago, and what it means for us now.