Fall Seminar Series - December 9, 2004
University of Minnesota
School of Statistics
College of Liberal Arts

Large Portfolio Losses

Amir Dembo
Department of Statistics
Stanford University

Thursday, December 9, 2004
3:30 PM, 115 Ford Hall
Minneapolis, East Bank Campus
Social at 3:00 PM, 300 Ford Hall

Abstract

We use large-deviations methods to analyze the tail risk of losses on large insurance or bank portfolios. Among other results, we calculate the approximate contribution to large tail losses of each type of position, as an input to portfolio structuring decisions. We provide conditions under which a portfolio lifetime risk measure can be reduced to a measure similar to value at risk.

This talk is based on a joint work with Jean-Dominique Deuschel and Darrell Duffie.