Fall 2002 Seminar Series - November 7, 2002
University of Minnesota
School of Statistics
College of Liberal Arts
Interactive Computing for Coherent Probability Assessment
James M. Dickey
School of Statistics
University of Minnesota
Thursday, November 7, 2002
4:00 PM, 115
Ford Hall
Minneapolis, East Bank Campus
Social at 3:30 PM, 300
Ford Hall
Abstract
A generalization of Bruno de Finetti's fundamental theorem
of probability is adapted for the interactive assessment of coherent probabilities,
subjective or estimative. The method is open-ended -- no predefined sample
space, revision tolerant, accepts imprecise inputs (intervals), linear inequalities,
and conditional probabilities and expectations. An open-source computer
program will be demonstrated. It is coded in Perl to allow on-the-fly construction
of subroutines for evolving user input of the relations on new events and
random quantities.