Spring 2001 Buehler-Martin Distinguished Lecture Series - April 16, 17
and 19, 2001
University of Minnesota
School of Statistics
College of Liberal Arts
The Swine Flu Vaccine and Guillain-Barre syndrome
David Freedman
Professor of Statistics
University of California, Berkeley
Tuesday, April 17, 2001
4:00 PM,
209
Akerman Hall
Minneapolis, East Bank Campus
Social at 3:30 PM,
300
Ford Hall
Abstract
Epidemiologic methods were developed to prove general causation: identifying
exposures that increase the risk of particular diseases. Courts often are
more interested in specific causation: on balance of probabilities, was the
plaintiff¹s disease caused by exposure to the agent in question? Some
authorities have suggested that a relative risk greater than 2.0 meets the
standard of proof for specific causation. Such definite criterion is appealing,
but there are difficulties. Bias and confounding are familiar problems;
individual differences must be considered too. The issues are explored in the
context of the swine flu vaccine and Guillain-Barre syndrome. Probabilistic
models for causation will be discussed.