Spring 2001 Buehler-Martin Distinguished Lecture Series - April 16, 17 and 19, 2001
University of Minnesota
School of Statistics
College of Liberal Arts

Statistical Issues in Census 2000

David Freedman
Professor of Statistics
University of California, Berkeley

Monday, April 16, 2001
4:00 PM, 170 Physics
Minneapolis, East Bank Campus
Social at 3:30 PM, 300 Ford Hall

Abstract

I will discuss Census 2000, focusing on capture-recapture methods to correct undercounts. Experience with such methods in 1980 and 1990 suggests that they can add more error than they take out. Adjustment is strongly dependent on somewhat arbitrary technical decisions, fieldwork is quite complicated, and there is ample room for measurement errors of different kinds. In 1990, for instance, the net undercount was estimated as 5.3 million, but 3 to 4 million out of this total represented errors in the adjustment process rather than errors in the census. In 2000, preliminary indications from administrative records (like birth certificates and death certificates) are that the Census overcounted the population by a number in the range from 1 to 4 million. Proposed statistical adjustments would have added another 3 million persons. If the administrative records are right, adjustment is going in the wrong direction. The Census Bureau recommended against adjustment, and this advice was accepted by the Secretary of Commerce.