February 10: Lynn YS Lin, AC Nielsen Bases

UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA

SEMINAR

School of Statistics
College of Liberal Arts

Modeling Consumer Purchase Behavior

Lynn YS Lin
AC Nielsen Bases
Covington, KY

Thursday, February 10, 2000
4:00-5:00 PM, Room 133 Physics
Social at 3:30 PM in Room 300 Ford Hall

Abstract

Consumers' household purchase behavior for packaged goods are modeled using regression methodology. Consumers' first purchase curve (or trial curve), different levels of repeat purchase curves are modeled. Sales components development over time and their interrelationship are quantified. The models are then used as the basics for developing a forecasting system to estimate new consumer product's first 3 years sales potential prior to launch. This system is called BASES and was developed by the author and it has been the no. 1 pre-market forecasting system in the world for the past 15 years, with about 65% market share.